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The War On Pathogens

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@ -55,32 +55,198 @@ More from Kulldorff:<br/>
[Herd immunity is still the key in the fight against Covid-19](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-is-still-key-in-the-fight-against-covid-19)
Kulldorff points to the ways that even just from the harms from Covid alone,
general lockdown may be doing more harm than good, and the burden is not shared equally between rich and poor.
general lockdown may be doing more harm than good, and the burden of lockdown is not shared equally between rich and poor.
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Infection Fatality Rate</b>
This often-cited statistic carries a great deal of heterogeneity by time, place, population and definition.
This [meta-study](https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf), published on October 14th, 2020,
from the WHO website, looked at 61 studies around the world, and found that the
Covid IFR for people under 70 ranges from 0.00% to 0.31% with a crude corrected median of 0.05%, and a general population
median infection fatality rate of 0.27%.
However, for a number of reasons, I don't think infection fatality rate is actually the best statistic for thinking about risk.
This [article](https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196) looks at the risk from Corona in terms of equivalent risk from normal life at your age. It found that
whatever age you are, the risk of dying after getting Corona was roughly equivalent
to the natural risk of dying without corona in the next year at that age.
<figure style="margin-top:0px">
<img src="/content/blog/the-war-on-pathogens/img/covid-risk.png" className="figureImage" style="{{'width': '100%'}}" />
<figcaption>The mortality risk with COVID-19 superimposed on background annual risk, from <a class="caption-link" href="https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196">"How much 'normal' risk does Covid represent?"</a>
</figcaption>
</figure>
Other estimates, such as by nobel-laureate Michael Levitt, have placed the equivalent risk at [one month of normal life](https://medium.com/@michael.levitt/the-excess-burden-of-death-from-coronavirus-covid-19-is-closer-to-a-month-than-to-a-year-83fca74455b4).
I speculate the true number is somewhere in between and would like to see this graph reproduced using more recent data.
Whatever the exact risk is, to me this way of looking at risk contextualizes it in a way
which feels more relevant than other metrics.
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Harms From Lockdown</b>
The harms from lockdown are various and many may never be quantified or even known. Some are very direct, like
the 525,000 people projected to die in 2021 from tuberculosis because of decreased access to care because of corona restrictions.
Other effects are more insidious &mdash; what are the long-term effects on all the children being raised in a condition
to separate from and fear other people?
The harms from lockdown are various and many may never be fully quantified or even known. Some are very direct, like
the [525,000 additional people projected to die in 2021](https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-annual-tb-deaths.html) from tuberculosis because of decreased access to care because of corona restrictions.
Other effects are more insidious &mdash; what are the long-term effects on children being taught to fear other children and physical closeness?
Here are some of the effects already being seen,
- [COVID-19 may add 525,000 to annual TB deaths](https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-annual-tb-deaths.html)
- [The pandemic’s financial pain is worst for Black and Latino parents, a survey finds](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/world/the-pandemics-financial-pain-is-worst-for-black-and-latino-parents-a-survey-finds.html)
- [The Hunger Virus: How Covid-19 Is Fuelling Hunger In A Hungry World](https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621023/mb-the-hunger-virus-090720-en.pdf)
- [The Covid-19 Pandemic Has Escalated Domestic Violence Worldwide](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackieabramian/2020/07/22/the-covid-19-pandemic-has-escalated-global-domestic-violence/#7b9ca1c5173e)
- [During June 24–30, 2020, U.S. adults reported considerably elevated adverse mental health conditions associated with COVID-19. Younger adults, racial/ethnic minorities, essential workers, and unpaid adult caregivers reported having experienced disproportionately worse mental health outcomes, increased substance use, and elevated suicidal ideation.](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm)
- [New Polio outbreak in Sudan from suspended vaccination campaigns](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-health-middle-east-africa-united-nations-619efb65b9eeec5650f011b960a152e9)
- [COVID-19 emergency measures and the impending authoritarian pandemic](https://academic.oup.com/jlb/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jlb/lsaa064/5912724)
- [Covid-19 has led to a pandemic of plastic pollution](https://www.economist.com/international/2020/06/22/covid-19-has-led-to-a-pandemic-of-plastic-pollution)
This is just a sample, but the scale and diversity of impacts suggest this a pointer to the iceberg.
The global response to the pandemic is an unprecedented public health strategy with unknown consequences.
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Cases, Testing & Media Coverage</b>
Trump is a xenophobic racist and terrible president, but strangely I agree with his repeated tweets that the
media fixation on cases doesn't make sense.
The graph below shows the disconnection between global number of cases and deaths.
<figure>
<img src="/content/blog/the-war-on-pathogens/img/cases-and-deaths.png" className="figureImage" style="{{'width': '100%'}}" />
<figcaption>Cases plotted against deaths worldwide, from <a class="caption-link" href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-01-01..latest">Our World In Data</a>
</figcaption>
</figure>
Other sources also point to this, even including the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/20/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates#a-third-surge-of-coronavirus-infections-has-now-firmly-taken-hold-across-much-of-the-united-states),
but reporting based on cases continues to center fear.
Fear-based reporting is perhaps best exemplified by the trend of reporting the number of Corona deaths in terms of multiples of 9/11,
a metric which can only be understood as trying to maximize fear of the virus.
Firstly deaths from 9/11 are a completely different type of death than from disease,
and secondly 9/11 was itself perhaps the most politicized and utilized-to-incite-fear deaths in human history,
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Excess Death</b>
I want to put something here (but I need to research to refind it, but I'm getting tired now)
that I saw that projected that even if deaths continued in the US
at the rate they have so far this year (not taking into account that the first wave was the biggest),
the total number of all-cause deaths in the US would not exceed the total number of deaths in the US
during 2017 (a year with a particularly bad flu season).
The number of excess deaths widely reported is based on how many people died week by week compared to the same
week in previous years, but this doesn't give a higher level picture of the impact of the pandemic.
Again this isn't to say that people are not dying from Corona, but to put it into perspective,
and show that when you zoom out a bit, its closer to a bad flu season.
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Security Theatre</b>
Next to the harms caused by lockdown, it becomes clear that at the very least, it is not the case that
all efforts to prevent the spread of Corona are beneficial and moral, regardless of their efficacy.
If we acknowledge that the strategy/ideology of restrictions have costs, then we can at least aim
that preventative measures are informed by efficacy. In reality, many preventative measures are informed
by public perception of liablity, moralizing and germophobia, with varying levels of alignment with actual efficacy.
Some examples,
- [Schools Aren’t Super-Spreaders, Fears from the summer appear to have been overblown](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/)
- [Corona is not easily transmitted through surfaces](https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-covid-infections-respiratory-droplets-aerosols.html?fbclid=IwAR0daSP2vCyfUlxxVtS6SGB9RVCeNPHgoxBPWoIZbUWjK0p6n9LaiPp-lyY), yet 'deep cleaning' helps people feel more at ease ([e.g. deep-cleaning new york subway](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8291771/New-York-subway-closes-time-workers-perform-deep-clean-Covid-19-lockdown.html))
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Long Covid</b>
<br/><br/>
While Long Covid is a real concern (my mom experienced a form of it, having symptoms for 4 weeks after getting Covid),
next to the harms of lockdown, justifying lockdown in terms of long covid seems like a sort of shifting ground argument
and hard to get behind.
Ultimately our assessment of risks will involve many different factors. My feeling is not that Covid isn't real,
but that a number of societal biases have effected the way that it is understood, leading to disproportionate
responses on an individual and collective level.
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Root Causes</b>
I believe there is a societal bias that lockdown is good for public health
that comes as an outgrowth from the colonial perspective that humans are separate from nature,
The societal bias that lockdown is good for public health is an outgrowth from the colonial perspective that humans are separate from nature,
and that the human body is a pure sterile space (ignoring the microbiome and that humans actually have an ecological relationship with viruses and bacteria).
This bias continues capitalist trends towards alienation from nature, each other, and our bodies, and furthers the deterioration of our health,
which was already in a public health crisis before corona.
which truly was already in a public health crisis long before corona (from pesticides, pollution, climate change, capital-influenced healthcare, the opioid crisis, biodiversity loss, lack of access to nature, and other factors).
I see unlearning this bias as part of the necessary healing work of our generation.
Perhaps if we could have had a perfect lockdown in March we could have prevented
the spread of the virus entirely. But given that didn't happen, it seems likely Corona will become endemic,
and that learning how to live with it is part of the work of our generation.
I hope we are able to collectively imagine "new normals" beyond the war on pathogens.
<div class="blue-line-break"></div>
<br/><br/>
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Origin Of The Term 'Conspiracy Theory'</b>
<br/><br/>
While 'Conspiracy Theory' is often used as a term to dismiss an argument, its worthwhile to recognize the history of the term.
<br/>
For a nuanced discussion of the history and role of conspiracy theories, which acknowledges that they
can both contain truths and also mislead, I recommend this podcast:<br/>
[Microdose: Erik Davis on the Cosmic Right](https://novaramedia.com/2020/08/13/microdose-erik-davis-on-the-cosmic-right/)
from the podcast, "need to get this quote"
I also appreciate Carl Jung's notion that even when not literally true, conspiracy theories often have some
seed of truth to them, and can be interpreted through a form of dream interpretation.
For example, if we look at the Chem Trails conspiracy theory, that the smoke trails seen behind planes
are trails of poisonous chemicals released into the air by the government to mind control the population
and control the weather &mdash; I don't literally believe this conspiracy theory,
but given the connection between air travel and climate change,
there is a sense in which the conspiracy theory is more true than the person who says the jet trails are harmless.
As a further note, I actually can't remember where I read about this Jung theory of conspiracy theories,
and its possible that I made it up, or that perhaps I dreamed about it. If anyone knows a source for this,
please send it to me, as I think about it often.
Given this perspective, I think the idea that conspiracy theories need to be censored or are the cause of
problems in the world, doesn't hold up.
I would ask first why someone is in a position where conspiracy theories are the best model
for their lived experience of reality, before trying to silence them.
Beyond that, many conspiracy theories hold truth, and some point to paradigm shifts.
Its an interesting epistemic ground, and perhaps like a Tarot reading, can be either spooky, misleading,
healing or informative, depending on how you engage with it.
With this introduction, here are some less accredited sources on this topic, to be navigated with your own
discernment to guide you.
<br/><br/>
<br/><br/>
<b class="section-header">Banned Accounts And Books</b>
[Swiss Policy Research Facts About Covid-19](https://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/)<br/>
[Studies On Covid Lethality](https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/)<br/>
Greenmedinfo ([instagram](https://www.instagram.com/greenmedinfo2/), [telegram](https://t.me/sayeregengmi))<br/>
Alec Zeck ([instagram](https://www.instagram.com/alec.zeck/), [telegram](https://t.me/TheWayFwrd))<br/>
[The Contagion Myth](https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Contagion-Myth/Thomas-S-Cowan/9781510764620)
<a class="epigraph" href="https://newworldwriting.net/tao-lin-meditation/">
A Poem By Tao Lin titled "Meditation"
</a>